Think Tanked

Former WSJ Publisher, Karen Elliott House Joins RAND & CNAS Boards

The Center for a New American Security and the RAND Corporation have each announced that Karen Elliott House, former senior vice president of Dow Jones & Company and publisher of all print editions of The Wall Street Journal, has joined boards at the think tanks. At CNAS, Elliott has become a member of the Board of Directors and at RAND she has been elected to a second term on the Board of Trustees. 

“Karen possesses extraordinary expertise and decades of foreign policy experience garnered from her own reporting and from leading some of the best news outlets in the business,” said CNAS Chief Executive Officer Nathaniel Fick in a released statement. “Her insight and guidance will be invaluable to the Center and we are honored to have her join our Board.”

"We are delighted that Karen House is returning to the RAND board. As a journalist and publisher, she is dedicated to RAND's mission and its core values of quality and objectivity," said RAND CEO James A. Thomson said.

Internet Pioneer, RAND Researcher Paul Baran Passes

From the release:

Paul Baran, who helped develop the building blocks of the Internet during the 1960s while working as a researcher at the RAND Corporation, died March 26 at his home in Palo Alto, Calif., from complications relating to lung cancer. He was 84.

RAND colleagues remembered Baran as a friendly and brilliant scientist who cared as much about the application of technology as he did about its development.

"Our world is a better place for the technologies Paul Baran invented and developed, and also because of his consistent concern with appropriate public policies for their use," said James A. Thomson, president and CEO of RAND. "Paul believed that much of the future is shaped by the development of technology and that it was quite appropriate that a lot of engineers and scientists be a part of an institution that's concerned with the future of public policy."

Baran left RAND in 1968, but he remained an active supporter of the non-profit, non-partisan research organization and the RAND Alumni Association. He frequently attended public policy forums and other events at RAND.

Natalie Crawford, a RAND senior fellow, recalled Baran as "a true visionary" who made some startlingly prescient predictions in a 1968 RAND report about how people would use the computer at home and for commerce.

"He was a kind and very humble man," she said. "He was a great mentor. He didn't care about who got credit. When he visited RAND in the summer of 2009 and presented a seminar to the Alumni Association on his work that led to packet switching, he said a lot of people contributed in important ways to this discovery, that it wasn't his alone. And then he closed with the quote: "If you see a frog sitting on top of a flag pole, you know it didn't get up there by itself." That typified Paul. We are all fortunate to have benefitted from Paul's many contributions and his friendship over the years, but he will be sorely missed."

Baran was born in Poland on April 28, 1926. In 1928, his family moved to the United States. He attended Drexel Institute of Technology (now Drexel University), where he earned a degree in electrical engineering in 1949. He went to work for Eckert-Mauchly Computer Corporation in Philadelphia, testing parts of radio tubes for an early commercial computer, the Univac.

He was married to Evelyn Murphy in 1955 and moved to Los Angeles, where he worked for the Hughes Aircraft Company. Taking night classes at UCLA, he earned a master's degree in engineering and joined the computer science department at the RAND Corporation in 1959.

Willis Ware, a retired RAND researcher, was chairman of the computer science department at RAND during Baran's tenure and said what he remembered most about his colleague was "his patience in dealing with people who didn't believe in his work — like AT&T [in the 1960s]. I think nobody really appreciated the importance of his work at the time."

At that time, RAND focused mostly on Cold War-related military issues. A looming concern was that neither the long-distance telephone network nor the basic military command-and-control system would survive a nuclear attack. Although most of the links would be undamaged, the centralized switching facilities would be destroyed by enemy weapons. Consequently, Baran conceived a system that had no centralized switches and could operate even if many of its links and switching nodes had been destroyed.

Baran envisioned a network of unmanned nodes that would act as switches, routing information from one node to another to their final destinations. The nodes would use a scheme Baran called "hot-potato routing" or distributed communications.

Baran also developed the concept of dividing information into "message blocks" before sending them out across the network. Each block would be sent separately and rejoined into a whole when they were received at their destination. The British computer scientist Donald Davies independently devised a similar system, but he called the message blocks "packets," a term that was eventually adopted instead of Baran's message blocks. The technology is known today as "packet switching."

In 1969, this distributed concept underwent its first large-scale test, with the first node installed at UCLA and the seventh node at RAND in Santa Monica. Funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency and called ARPANET, it was intended for scientists and researchers who wanted to share one another's computers remotely. Within two years, however, the network's users had turned it into something unforeseen: a high-speed, electronic post office for exchanging everything from technical to personal information.

In 1983, the rapidly expanding network broke off from its military part, which became MILNET. The remainder became what was called ARPANET. In 1989, the ARPANET moniker was retired in favor of the "Internet," which had also been described as the "information superhighway."

Baran left RAND in 1968 to co-found the Institute for the Future, a nonprofit research group specializing in long-range forecasting. He also started seven companies, five of which eventually became publicly-traded companies.

Baran's papers will be donated to Stanford University, according to his family.

Baran's wife, Evelyn, died in 2007. He is survived by his son and daughter-in-law, David and Jane Baran of Atherton, Calif.; three grandchildren; and his companion, Ruth Rothman.

Personnel Files: Nora Bensahel From RAND to CNAS

The Center for a New American Security announced today that Dr. Nora Bensahel has joined CNAS as Deputy Director of Studies and Senior Fellow. Dr. Bensahel, who previously served as a Senior Political Scientist at RAND Corporation, works in the areas of U.S. foreign policy and military issues.

“Nora’s wide-ranging expertise, analytical rigor and deep commitment to pragmatic approaches to national security will bring immense value to the Center,” said CNAS Chief Executive Officer Nathaniel Fick in a released statement.

Dr. Bensahel (Ph.D., Stanford University) is an adjunct associate professor in security studies at Georgetown University and serves on the Executive Board of Women in International Security. She has been a fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University and at the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University.

RAND Signs to Develop 'Knowledge City' in China

The RAND Corporation announced today that it has signed a contract to assist the Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development District in Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China, to support technological innovation in 'Knowledge City,' a planned new development in southern China's Guangdong for 300,000 residents. RAND will assist GETDD in attracting world-class scientific, engineering and entrepreneurial talent to build technology companies in Knowledge City.

RAND president and CEO James A. Thomson signed the contract with director general of the Administrative Committee of Guangzhou Development District Ling Weixian. Thomson also met with Wang Yang, secretary of the Guangdong Committee of the Communist Party of China.

"The Guangzhou Development District is very honored to work with RAND on this Knowledge City innovation project, and this contract signing ceremony is the starting point for our cooperative research project," Ling said in a released statement.

"We hope that through this cooperation, RAND can provide us with a portfolio of policy advice on attracting global talent and developing a knowledge economy. This signing ceremony today is just the start of cooperation between our two sides," he said.

The project will be led by Debra Knopman, vice president and director of the RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment division; Keith Crane, a RAND senior economist; and Howard Shatz, a RAND senior economist. The final report is expected to be completed in a little more than a year.

Knowledge City broke ground nine months ago and is a joint project between China and Singapore.

Rumsfeld Papers: Recreating RAND at the Pentagon

In conjunction with the release of his memoir, Known and Unknown, former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is releasing numerous declassified documents from all of his governmental positions over the years. Some of those documents, of course, are think tank-related.

One such memo to Rumsfeld came from Andrew Marshall, the director of the Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon--a position he was appointed to in 1973 by Richard Nixon and hasn't left the seat since.

Rumsfeld, a man who has been characterized by overthinking his decisions sometimes to the point of impotence, was the perfect person for Marshall to pitch recreating RAND at the Pentagon.

Why? The reason was simple enough, for Marshall. What 9/11 and deciding how to respond showed is how the nature of warfare is changing and will continue to do so, centered around "the notion that the information and communication technologies should lead to new operational methods and ultimately to major changes in warfare."

The problem was that the metrics and the institutions that measured them were too ad hoc and the ability to model information was too weak.

Marshall's answer was to develop a RAND-like organization within the Pentagon to deal with this problem. Better yet: institute two of them and have them compete against each other.

On March 29, 2002, Marshall wrote:

Create a RAND of the 1950's organization and provide it with a broad but clear mission statement. Such a a statement might be something like the development of the science of the information aspects of warfare. The idea would be to bring together a very bright set of people and set them to work over an extended period thinking through the role of information in warfare and developing appropriate analytical tools, metrics and significantly improving our ability to model the contributions of information to the outcomes of combat. This is likely to be a decade long effort and not too expensive, although the bureaucratic obstacles to starting such a new Federal study organization would have to be negotiated with the Congress. I don't think this requires a lot of people; the numbers initially could be quite small, on the scale of 20-25 people in the organization. In any case, the key thing is picking the management and, as in the analogy with RAND, that means finding a Frank Colbohm and people like Charlie Hitch and John Williams to establish its character and provide the intellectual leadership. Because there are no real experts in this area you would need to think about growing future Albert Wohlstetter and Herman Kahns. So young bright people with appropriate academic backgrounds that are willing to focus on concrete problems are what you need. Ideally, if I could, I would start two of these organizations and have them compete way to see which one could provide the best analytic framework for this area, the best case studies of the role of information in warfare, etc. 

RAND: China's Air Force Could Pose 'Major Challenge'

A new study by the RAND Corporation has found that a future Chinese air force campaign would seriously test the U.S. and its allies in a potential conflict.

The study, "Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century," indicates that China poses a serious threat if it follows through on its defense plans as they are outlined in a number of military publications. The RAND report details how the Chinese military would employ its air forces in a future conflict, particularly in a conflict over Taiwan and a potential clash with U.S. and allied forces.

"Just 10 years ago China's air force was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training," said Roger Cliff, the study's lead author, in a released statement. "Today, it appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for decades to come."

"If these doctrinal principles are reflected in actual training and, in the event of a conflict, in campaign and mission planning, the United States could find itself engaged with adversary air forces both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to any it has fought since the end of the Cold War," Cliff said.

The report points out that the conventions of China's air forces have typically focused on defensive operations, but that China is clearly moving in the direction of offensive strategies that will not solely rely on the air force, but in conjunction with conventional ballistic and cruise missiles.

Among the key findings:

• If the United States intervenes in a conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, it should expect attacks on its forces and facilities in the western Pacific, including those in Japan.
• U.S. forces should expect their information systems to be subjected to network intrusions or denial-of-service attacks.
• During a conflict with China, the U.S. armed forces should prepare to deal with electronic jamming on a scale larger than it has seen in any conflict since the end of the Cold War.

Download "Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century."  

What Happens if Iran is Next? Succession to Khamenei

Following the events in Tunisia and Egypt, pundits, journalists and others couldn't help jump to the question: "Is Iran next?" or, perhaps more accurately, "Can we make Iran next?"

A new study from the RAND Corporation examining several different succession scenarios concludes that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's successor would likely maintain the status quo.

"Currently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have tremendous power, and will be in a good position to shape succession in the near future," said Alireza Nader, lead author of the study and an international policy analyst with RAND, in a released statement. "However, other factors, such as popular dissatisfaction with the regime, could curtail the Guards' role in determining succession."

The other potential, but less likely, scenarios include:

• Status quo—where Khamenei is followed by a leader like himself, possibly someone he hand-picks
• "Absolutist"—an absolute dictator with strong religious and political credentials supported by a cult of personality
• "Democratic"—a reformist leader who is more accountable to the republican institutions and the electorate than Khamenei
• Leadership council—an executive leadership group that replaces a single leader
• Abolition—the demise of the Supreme Leader position in favor of republicanism.

At 71, an aging Khamenei has been the highest political authority since June 1989, often bolstering an unpopular President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at important junctures. However, as the RAND report points out, rumours of poor health should suggest to U.S. policymakers that the time is now to consider an Iran without the stabilizing factor of Khamenei since the next supreme leader will largely determine the country's direction.

Nader says the three primary factors that will determine the nature of the of the next office include: the factions and personalities in positions of power and influence, the prevailing concept of the rule of the supreme jurisprudent, and the decisions and actions of Khamenei's personal network such as the Revolutionary Guards. Other influences include the anti-Ahmadinejad Green Movement, the women's rights movement, Iran's declining economy and Iranian relations with the United States.

Download "The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Personnel Files: RAND Turns to Haiti Fund VP, Veteran Diplomat in Europe to Lead Middle East Center

The RAND Corporation has named career diplomat Charles Ries as the new director of the think tank's Center for Middle East Public Policy. Ries has recently returned to RAND following a leave of absence to act as executive vice president of the Clinton Bush Haiti Fund.

Aside from a short stint in Iraq and a generally impressive career, it is not immediately clear what makes Ries particularly well-positioned to lead a center that focuses on Middle East policy.

From 2007-2008, Ries served as the State Department's minister for economic affairs and coordinator for economic transition in Iraq. However, most of his other posts were in Europe, including: ambassador to Greece from 2004 to 2007 and principal deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, 2000–2004. Other senior positions include the U.S. Embassy in London, the U.S. Mission to the European Union in Brussels and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

"As governments across the Middle East are experiencing challenge and change, we are delighted that Charles Ries will take on the leadership of RAND's Center for Middle East Public Policy," said RAND President and CEO James A. Thomson in a released statement.

"The center has long been a source for insights into the domestic policy and national security challenges that face decisionmakers in the Middle East, and Charles will bring his wisdom, experience and relationships to our efforts to improve policy outcomes throughout the region," said Thompson.

Ries' RAND research has focused on Haiti, national security, intelligence, European politics, and energy/environmental policy and assisting fragile states, according to the RAND website.

UPDATE: A representative from RAND told Think Tanked that Ries had led RAND projects on the Middle East and "his background in civil-military collaboration, economic development, energy, and state-to-state relationships provides a deep base in the issues that our Middle East center addresses."

RAND Wins Award for Invisible Wounds of War

The RAND Corporation and senior social research analyst Terri Tanielian have won the AcademyHealth Impact Award for the study, Invisible Wounds of War, which assessed the psychological impact of U.S. service members returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. The project led to policy action by Congress, the Pentagon and the Veterans Administration.

From the release: 

The HSR Impact Award is also given to an individual whose research has been successfully translated into health policy, management, or clinical practice. AcademyHealth presented the award to Terri Tanielian, senior social research analyst and co-director of the RAND Center for Military Health Policy Research. She is co-author of Invisible Wounds and also completed a congressionally-mandated evaluation of a TRICARE demonstration to expand access to mental health counselors.

AcademyHealth represents a broad community of people with an interest in and commitment to using health services research to improve health care. Together with its members, AcademyHealth is dedicated to improving the knowledge base of health care decision-making by supporting the professional development of those who conduct and use health services research, advocating for the tools and funding necessary to do this important work, and helping to translate HSR findings into policy and practice.

NYC Teacher Bonuses May Be in RAND's Hands

Last week, the New York City Department of Education suspended its controversial multi-million dollar program that awards bonuses to teachers based on student testing performance. The decision to suspend the program is apparently linked to the dramatic drop in the numbers of schools awarded the bonuses--26 schools this year compared to approximately 160 the year before.

The Department of Education has left the door open for the bonus program to return pending the results of a RAND study.

"This was always a pilot program, and we don't yet know its impact on student achievement," said Barbara Morgan, a department spokeswoman, of the bonuses. "We have commissioned an independent study by the RAND Corporation that is due late this spring, and we will make a determination about whether to continue this program based on the results of that study."