Think Tanked

CEIP's Thomas Carothers: Egypt Will Decide the Muslim Brotherhood's Role, Not U.S.

As protests have spread throughout the Arab world, Washington's democracy promotion community has shown an almost parallel level of fervor for the action on the ground in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya, with the hope of more to follow. Their enthusiasm, however, is tempered by their acknowledgement that democracy-building is a struggle and often comes with setbacks.

But one of the biggest battles of how to "democratize" the region may take place in Washington when those stakeholders who claim they would love to see Arab democracy want to have their say in what kind of democracy and for whom.

Carnegie Endowment's Tom Carothers, writing in the Washington Post, points out that supporting democracy in Egypt is one thing, but determining outcomes is another.

A perennial tension in supporting democracy abroad is maintaining a clear line between bolstering key democratic principles - such as political openness and fair competition - and trying to shape particular electoral outcomes. When we begin to choose favorites from a field of political competitors and seek to give them a boost, we step over this line. Not only do such efforts at engineering electoral outcomes undercut our credibility, they also usually backfire against the very people we are trying to help. Witness the futility of the efforts of U.S. diplomats in Iraq to throw U.S. weight behind certain candidates or parties during the various elections since 2005.

If Egyptians decide to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in the next presidential and parliamentary elections - a decision they will make through their own constitutional reform process - we will have to make a clear choice if we wish to aid Egypt's political party development. Either we open our programs to all legally registered nonviolent parties, or we stay away from political party support.

CEIP's Muasher to Arab Leaders: Wake Up to These Lessons!

Marwan Muasher, former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan, is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace writes in the Guardian that it's time for Arab leaders to learn the lessons of Tunisia and Egypt--three, in particular.

The first is that it is easy to point the finger at high prices and unemployment as the principal reasons for the protests, but it's not that simple. Several countries are already taking short-term steps, including subsidies for basic staples and better salaries, but this won't work for ever. Real solutions need to improve democratic and political rights, fight corruption, and defend the rule of law.

The second point that everyone needs to realise is that no country is safe – all Arab countries are under threat. There's a tendency among Arab leaders and their advisers to take comfort in the differences that their countries have with Tunisia and to assume that kneejerk handouts can easily deal with economic grievances. But this is a false sense of safety and obviously doesn't hold with the unfolding events in Egypt.

[...]

And the last lesson is that old arguments rationalising tight controls on politics to keep Islamists from gaining power are fundamentally undermined. Governments use the fear of Islam to justify closed political systems that clamp down on all forms of discontent.

Personnel Files: Carnegie Endowment Names Tom Carver to Head Global Communications

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has announced that 20-year BBC veteran Tom Carver will join the think tank as vice president for communications and strategy. Carver will have a significant portfolio, covering communications in CEIP's Washington headquarters as well as its growing international offices in Beijing, Beirut, Brussels and Moscow.

Carnegie's president, Jessica T. Mathews, in a released statement, said, "We are thrilled that Tom will be leading our global communications team. As an award-winning journalist and leading communications strategist, he is uniquely suited for this position. With his deep knowledge of international affairs and global policy, Tom will be an invaluable asset to Carnegie’s efforts in building the first global think tank."

Carver, who served as the BBC's Washington correspondent and also covered the first Gulf War, Bosnian War and the Rwandan genocide, added, "In the face of serious international challenges—a shifting balance of power, security and proliferation threats, a fragile economic recovery, and climate change—there has rarely been a more important time for a think tank such as Carnegie with its deep knowledge of world affairs."

Carnegie Endowment Calls for Nuclear Program Fellow

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program is now accepting applications for 2011-2012 Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship Program. Deadline is January 31, 2011.

The objective of the Stanton Fellowship is to enhance and develop the Fellow's capacity to become a leader in policy-relevant research in the areas of nuclear deterrence, disarmament, nonproliferation, or energy. The Fellow will be based at Carnegie's headquarters in Washington, with access to colleagues in Beijing, Beirut, Brussels, and Moscow. Over the course of their time at Carnegie, the Fellow will have the opportunity and resources to deepen their understanding of how nuclear policies are developed and contested within the U.S. and between it and other states. The Fellow will be expected to research and write on pertinent and emergent topics, to organize and participate in expert workshops and larger public events in the U.S. and abroad, and generally to demonstrate the capacity to become a thought leader in the nuclear field.

Learn about other requirements and how to apply. Mention you saw the opening on Think Tanked.

Carnegie Unveils Website to Monitor Egypt's Elections

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has unveiled a guide to Egypt's elections today for both English and Arabic reading audiences. As an ailing Hosni Mubarak will have no choice but to soon end his presidency, multiple groups in Egypt are vying for some semblance of formal political power in a country that has experimented with democracy, only to retreat to its authoritarian proclivities.  

This election period, which will begin in November and is expected to carry out over the next year, entails some of the most sensitive elections in Egypt's history. And while the parliamentary schedule is set, there are still commitment problems for the presidential elections.

Parliamentary Elections for the People’s Assembly: November 29, 2010
Parliamentary Run-off Election: December 6, 2010
Presidential Election: September 2011 (tentative)

From the CEIP primer:

Opposition movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Nobel Laureate’s Mohammed ElBaradei’s National Association for Change view the coming political season as a critical window of opportunity for political reform, but whether or not these diverse groups can translate their grassroots momentum into effective pressure for political reform remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) remains deeply committed to preserving the political status quo, and its powerful leaders—including Hosni Mubarak’s own son Gamal—will not easily relinquish their dominance in Egypt’s governing institutions. In previous parliamentary races, domestic observers have accused the NDP and security services of unlawful interference in the voting process and many expect that the integrity of the upcoming elections will be similarly compromised. Whatever the outcome, this high-stakes electoral season might well mark a turning point in Egyptian political history.

Thus far, here's what you'll find on the Carnegie Guide to Egypt's Elections:

• Background on the ruling National Democratic Party, formal opposition parties, and opposition movements
• Details on how the upcoming elections will be monitored
• An overview of the legal framework surrounding the election
• A detailed political timeline of Egypt
• An interactive breakdown of parliamentary electoral results since 1976
• Exclusive Carnegie video interviews with Egyptian political figures
• Expert analysis on the latest developments
• Latest news from Egypt provided by al-Masry al-Youm

One of the more provocative elements with this launch is an essay by Amr Hamzawy, Research Director and Senior Associate of CEIP's Middle East Center, "The Case for Boycotting Egypt's Elections."

Or, perhaps it's this interview with Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson Essam al-Arian:

 

CEIP's Muasher on Middle East Regionalism & Peace

The Center for American Progress has published an interview with Marwan Muasher, former Jordanian foreign minister and current vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Most of the interview focuses on the importance of the Arab Peace Initiative and its connection to regional stability, but I thought this was a telling passage.

What is your sense of possibility [of successful Israeli-Palestinian negotiation] in the coming months?

I think the bilateral track on its own has little chance of arriving at a successful conclusion, simply because each side does not have what the other side wants. What I explained before is that there are now regional elements that cannot be addressed through a Palestinian-Israeli track alone; the question of Hamas, the question of Hezbollah, the question of the relationship with Iran, the question of Syria’s role, cannot all be addressed through just a separate peace agreement. Even if they successfully arrive at an agreement, there is no way for that agreement to stick without the support of the whole Palestinian population and therefore without the inclusion of Hamas. There are elements such as what you do about the refugee issue, what you do about East Jerusalem, where I believe the compromises will have to be met through a regional settlement. Neither the Israelis, nor the Palestinians would be able to make such compromises if the reward is only a separate Palestinian-Israeli agreement.

Do you imagine reviving the multilateral groups?

No. I don’t mean that we need to have multilateral negotiations taking place. I think the negotiations can still be on the Palestinian-Israeli front—I would add to that a Syrian-Israeli track. But I think that some understanding of the end game has to be arrived at with the Arab states. So that any agreement on the Palestinian-Israeli front would gain the support of Arab states and would not blame the Palestinians for any compromises made.

Catch the full interview at the Center for American Progress.

Daybook: 6/8/10

Improving Science and Technology Innovation in the United States (Brookings) President Strobe Talbott will welcome participants to the forum, which includes Aneesh Chopra, U.S. Chief Technology Officer; Vivek Kundra, Federal Chief Information Officer; Phil Weiser, Senior Advisor to the National Economic Council Director for Technology and Innovation; and Robert Braun, Chief Technologist of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), chairman of the House Committee on Science and Technology, will offer a congressional perspective at lunch.

Shifting the Balance in Asia: Indian Military Modernization (AEI) India's military modernization is perhaps the most overlooked of the major trends occurring in the Asia-Pacific region. While many have focused on the buildup of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, comparatively little time and resources have been devoted to studying the Indian military. Yet India's armed forces are likely to play as important a role as China's over the coming decades as Asia's two giants assume their roles as the region's predominant powers.

Taking Tehran’s Temperature: One Year On (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) NPR’s Steve Inskeep will moderate a conversation between leading Iran analysts Abbas Milani of Stanford University, Gary Sick of Columbia University and Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour, on the stability of the regime and how the United States should deal with the Islamic Republic.

The Global Fight for LGBT Rights (Center for American Progress) Antigay legislation in Uganda has prompted a global outcry and heightened attention to the dangers facing gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people in Africa. Join Anglican Bishop Christopher Senyonjo and Bishop Gene Robinson along with Michael H. Posner, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor and CAP's Sally Steenland for the discussion.

For more events, see the calendar in the sidebar.

Carnegie's Dunne & Kagan to Obama: Support Egyptians

Picking up on the one-year anniversary of President Obama's Cairo speech, Michele Dunne and Robert Kagan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss in the Washington Post
why it is that Egyptians are frustrated one year later.

The disappointment is understandable. As Egypt heads into controversial parliamentary elections in fall 2010 and a presidential election in 2011, the Obama administration has been tone-deaf, intent on continuing to improve relations with the increasingly brittle and unpopular Mubarak regime. It has cut democracy assistance spending in Egypt by half, agreed to forbid assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development to groups that lack the government's stamp of approval, and is discussing a future "endowment" that would commit the United States to years of assistance with diminished congressional oversight. When administration officials have privately raised questions about democracy or human rights with the Egyptian government, their carefully calibrated "quiet diplomacy" has been dismissed or ignored. Obama himself politely asked Mubarak during an August 2009 Oval Office meeting to fulfill his 2005 pledge to lift the state of emergency under which Egyptians have been repressed since 1981. Mubarak brushed him off. Last month, Mubarak renewed the state of emergency for another two years, conveniently the period during which parliamentary and presidential elections will occur. The Obama administration called it "regrettable."

Dunne, Kagan and a handful of other think tankers have formed a working group on Egypt.

Carnegie's Kaplan Not Impressed on Russia "Breakthrough"

In his monthly Washington Post column, Robert Kagan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expresses how unimpressed he is with the Obama's breakthrough with Russia on the Iran issue.

Yes, it was quite a breakthrough -- by the administration of George W. Bush. In fact, this 2007 triumph came after another, similar breakthrough in 2006, when months of negotiations with Moscow had produced the first watered-down resolution. And both were followed in 2008 by yet another breakthrough, when the Bush administration got Moscow to agree to a third resolution, another marginal tightening of sanctions, after more negotiations and more diluting.