Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made it clear he plans to retire in 2011. Mark Thompson over at TIME's Swampland blog narrowed the field of those who are likely to replace Gates to five--and three of them have strong ties to think tanks: John Hamre, President and CEO of CSIS; Michele Flournoy (co-founder of CNAS and current Under Secretary of Defense for Policy); and Richard Danzig (Chariman of the Board, Center for a New American Security).
John Hamre, who was second-in-command in the Clinton Pentagon, is widely viewed as the safest choice. Now running the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he's kept his hand in official Pentagon business by serving as head of the Defense Policy Board, an advisory panel that helps defense secretaries deal with thorny national-security issues. Before serving as the Pentagon's chief financial officer from 1993 to 1997, he spent a decade on the staff of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Michelle Flournoy is the Pentagon policy chief, which makes her the third-ranking person in the building (and the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in the Pentagon hierarchy). She gets good marks in her Pentagon role, which involves frequent meetings at the White House with other second-tier officials, and overseeing the Pentagon's every-four-year review of what the national security of the country demands and the best way to get it.
Richard Danzig, Navy secretary under Clinton, was the point man on defense matters during Obama's presidential run and was widely expected to get the job if Gates hadn't been tapped to stay on. He has kept a low profile ever since, now serving as chairman of the board of the Center for a New American Security think tank, which was where Flournoy thought big thoughts before landing her current Pentagon post.
You may be surprised at the other two Thompson mentioned. Have a look at those, as well as
his analysis of how, if and when the decision is made.
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